If you’ve spent five minutes on Facebook or Discord lately, you’d think Kings of War was on its last legs, gathering dust in the corner of Mantic’s attic. The whispers are everywhere: player numbers are down, events are shrinking, the meta is stale. It’s a gloomy picture.
But here at Data & Dice, we prefer to let the numbers do the talking. And what they’re saying is a very different story.
To get to the bottom of it, we dug into the data from the one place that tracks KoW events globally: the Mantic Companion. It’s not perfect, and we’ll get to its quirks in a minute, but it’s our best, globally consistent barometer for the health of the Kings of War competitive scene. And folks, the patient has a very strong pulse.
Why Use Mantic Companion?
Mantic’s Companion isn’t perfect–not every event is listed, especially in North America–but it’s our best globally consistent source. If the system were truly dying, we’d expect sharp, consistent drops across most metrics. That’s not what we see.
1. Community Size Over Time
- Unique players jumped from ~50 in 2022 to 530 in 2024, then eased to 355 so far in 2025 (data through August).
- Average headcount per event nudged up from 14 to ~17 players (I know the graph doesn’t show that well because I’m lazy, but I promise that’s what it shows).
So why the drop in 2025?
What about the “2025 dip” you might see in the raw numbers? This is easily explained. First, we’re only partway through the year. Second, and more importantly, this is where the North American reporting gap hits hardest. The lack of data from major US events makes the 2025 numbers look lower than they are in reality.
To see the real story, we use a 4-quarter rolling average. This smooths out seasonal bumps and data gaps, revealing the underlying trend. And that trend is an undeniable, steady climb since the launch of 3rd Edition. It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon, and KoW is pacing strong.
Smoothing the Spikes
The four-quarter rolling average shows a clear upward trajectory from late 2022 through early 2025. The recent dip is modest and entirely expected given the calendar and reporting gaps.
2. Meta Diversity vs. Event Volume
- Event count soared after 2022–we now regularly see 140+ per year.
- HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, where lower = more diverse) dropped sharply, indicating a more balanced meta.
- 2025 sees a small HHI uptick, likely due to less global data coverage.
If the game were collapsing, you’d expect fewer events and more faction clumping. Instead, we’re seeing a wide range of lists and stable or growing event counts.
3. Player Retention & Churn
| Year | Unique | New % | Retained % | Drop-off % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 404 | 91 | 74 | 26 |
| 2024 | 529 | 54 | 60 | 43 |
| 2025* | 353 | 28 | 48 | 85 |
| *2025 through Q3 |
2025 shows a sharp drop-off, but again, that’s likely data-related. If someone played in a North American event that didn’t report to Companion, they vanish from this chart. We need to distinguish between churn and visibility.
4. Regional Storylines
- Europe: growth engine, reliably strong numbers each quarter, peaking in Q3.
- Oceania: strong in 2023 but appears to have cooled. May reflect seasonality or event structure changes.
- North America: growing, but under-represented. Most of the missing players and events in 2025 are likely from this region.
5. Seasonality: Summer Is King
Q3 is the high tide: UK Clash of Kings, German Masters, Aussie GTs, are all clustered around mid-year. Q4 dips with holidays, then Q1 rebuilds with convention season.
6. Engagement Intensity
- Median player attends 1.4 events/year.
- Power users (the top ~10%) go to 4+ events. These road-warriors are the glue of the scene.
What We’re Not Seeing
We’d expect a dying game to show:
- Fewer events each year: not true.
- Fewer players, both total and average per event: not true.
- More faction concentration as balance degrades: not true.
- Major regional collapses: not happening.
Instead, we see:
- Robust seasonal patterns.
- Growth and churn consistent with a stable hobby game.
- A solid core of returning players and a steady trickle of new ones.
Why the Panic? – The Social Media Echo Chamber
If all the data is so positive, why the constant doom-and-gloom online? It comes down to the social media echo chamber.
A player who has a bad experience at a local event or dislikes a specific rule change is often more motivated to post online than the dozens of players who had a great time. These negative anecdotes get amplified, shared, and repeated until they create a false perception of widespread decline. It’s easier to complain than to celebrate growth.
This is why we advocate for trusting aggregate data over anecdotes. One person’s bad tournament doesn’t erase the fact that hundreds of others are playing and enjoying the game every weekend.
Conclusion: Long Live Kings of War!
The data is clear: Kings of War is not dying. It’s thriving, growing, and diversifying. It’s a game with a vibrant, engaged community and active developer support that has fostered one of the most balanced and varied metas on the market.
The feeling of decline is a phantom, born from incomplete data and the natural amplification of online negativity. The reality is a game that has more than tripled its active competitive player base in two years.
So, here is our call to arms:
- For Tournament Organizers (especially in North America): Please, consistently upload your results to the Mantic Companion! It takes a few minutes and helps us all see the true, fantastic scale of this community.
- For Players: Keep supporting your local events. Bring a friend. When you have a great time, post about that too. Let’s make the positive stories as loud as the negative ones.
I’ll keep an eye on the numbers, looking next at cohort survival rates and event size trends. But for now, the verdict is in.
So, next time someone whispers about the impending death of Kings of War, tell them to check the data. Then roll some dice.
(Data covers 2022 Q4–2025 Q3, scraped 07 Aug 2025 from Mantic Companion.)
