ConVic 2026 is almost here, and the list pack gives us a clean pre-tournament snapshot of the Australian Kings of War scene. This is a 33-list field. It covers 15 factions. The most represented army is Forces of Nature, with 5 lists, but the bigger story is not that Nature is everywhere–it’s that nothing else is everywhere.
A healthy tournament field does not need perfect faction parity, but it should give players a range of problems to solve. ConVic appears to do that. There are durable grind lists, fast pressure lists, stealthy control pieces, shambling cores, heavy ranged builds, and a few very honest “walk forward and ask questions” armies. That should make for a fun tournament.
Before getting into the data, give the Direct Misfire crew a listen. Their pre-ConVic episode, “DM Missive: ConVic 2026 lists,” walks through Kakwah Kup, new players coming into Kings of War in Australia, ConVic lists, and predictions. You can listen here: Direct Misfire – DM Missive: ConVic 2026 lists. And if all you care about is the underlying data, you can get there here:
TL;DR
- Forces of Nature lead the field with 5 of 33 lists, or 15.2%.
- The field is wide open: 15 factions across 33 players, with no single faction taking over the room.
- Balanced and Grind lists dominate the archetype mix, combining for 26 of 33 lists.
- The average list brings 23.4 Unit Strength, which suggests players are preparing to play scenarios, not just remove models.
- Fire Elementals and Earth Elementals are the most common units, which fits the Forces of Nature story.
- Speed still matters: Xirkaali, Elves, Ratkin, Abyss, and Nightstalkers all show up near the top of the threat-range table.
The Field at a Glance
Here is the basic faction picture.
| Faction | Lists | % of Field | Historical % | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forces of Nature | 5 | 15.2% | 5.3% | +9.8 pp |
| Nightstalkers | 3 | 9.1% | 4.6% | +4.5 pp |
| Orcs | 3 | 9.1% | 9.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Xirkaali | 3 | 9.1% | 3.9% | +5.2 pp |
| Forces of the Abyss | 3 | 9.1% | 3.2% | +5.9 pp |
| Salamanders | 3 | 9.1% | 7.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Elves | 2 | 6.1% | 6.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Twilight Kin | 2 | 6.1% | 3.5% | +2.5 pp |
| Dwarfs | 2 | 6.1% | 7.1% | -1.0 pp |
| Ratkin | 2 | 6.1% | 2.5% | +3.6 pp |
| Abyssal Dwarfs | 1 | 3.0% | 2.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Northern Alliance | 1 | 3.0% | 7.8% | -4.8 pp |
| Empire of Dust | 1 | 3.0% | 4.3% | -1.2 pp |
| Goblins | 1 | 3.0% | 3.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Ogres | 1 | 3.0% | 8.5% | -5.5 pp |
Forces of Nature lead the room, but ConVic still spreads 33 lists across 15 factions.
The top line is simple: Forces of Nature are the faction to watch. They are almost 10 percentage points above their historical share in this data set. What makes it more interesting is that the Nature lists are not all doing the exact same thing. The unique-list table has five Forces of Nature lists, and their archetypes split between Grind and Gun Line. Players are not simply copying one solved build but are using the same faction shell to ask different questions.
Forces of Nature are bringing the classic package: hard-to-remove scoring, steady shambling pressure, healing access, and enough punch to make the opponent respect the middle of the table. The faction does not need to win every exchange. It just needs to survive enough of them while keeping Unit Strength in the right places. The ConVic Nature lists average:
| Metric | Forces of Nature |
|---|---|
| Lists | 5 |
| Average Unit Strength | 22.2 |
| Average Expected Damage | 69.6 |
| Average Shots to Six Nerve | 416 |
| Average List Similarity | ~0.47 |
That is the shape of a flexible faction. The Unit Strength is solid, the expected damage is above the field average, and the defensive profile is serious. So what? If you are playing into Nature at ConVic, you probably need a plan for two things:
- Removing Defense-heavy scoring units without overcommitting
- Winning scenario pressure even when the center does not collapse quickly
If your list only wins by deleting the middle, Nature may make that uncomfortable.
But This Is Not a One-Faction Event
Behind FoN, there are five factions tied at three players: Nightstalkers, Orcs, Xirkaali, Forces of the Abyss, and Salamanders (apparently they don’t build much Ratkin in Australia?). That is a very different meta shape from a room where one army spikes to 25% and everyone else is reacting to it: this is a spread field. The event also has a pretty broad army identity mix:
| Archetype | Lists | % of Field |
|---|---|---|
| Balanced | 16 | 48.5% |
| Grind | 10 | 30.3% |
| Gun Line | 3 | 9.1% |
| Trash | 3 | 9.1% |
| Shambling Combined Arms | 1 | 3.0% |
Balanced and Grind lists make up 26 of 33 lists. That is the main tournament texture. ConVic does not look like a pure alpha-strike room. It does not look like a pure shooting room either. It looks like a room full of lists that want to contest space, trade in layers, and keep scoring options alive into turns five and six.
Scenario Play Looks Real
The average list has 23.4 Unit Strength and 13.3 scoring units. That is not a tiny elite meta. It is also not pure spam. Most lists appear to have enough scoring presence to play the mission while still packing real damage. Some standouts:
| Player | Faction | Unit Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Matt | Goblins | 32 |
| Andrew Goodman | Abyssal Dwarfs | 29 |
| Yan Zhi | Ratkin | 29 |
| Adrian Hunter | Elves | 28 |
| Jeffrey Traish | Forces of Nature | 28 |
| Ken Ferris | Forces of the Abyss | 27 |
The Goblins list sits at the top with 32 Unit Strength, as you do. On the other end, some lists sit below 20 Unit Strength. Those armies may hit hard, move well, or defend well, but they have less room for scenario mistakes. Low Unit Strength lists can absolutely win events. They just tend to require cleaner play–No wasted turns. No casual scoring drops. No “I’ll deal with that token later.” Later gets expensive.
The Long Threats Are Still There
Even in a field that leans Balanced and Grind, speed is not gone. The threat-range table has several lists with a damage-weighted average threat of 14 inches or more. Xirkaali are especially loud here, taking three of the top four spots.
| Rank | Player | Faction | Max Threat | Damage-Weighted Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Graham | Xirkaali | 20 | 15.1 |
| 2 | Mathew Sellick | Elves | 20 | 14.6 |
| 3 | Stephen Tuck | Xirkaali | 18 | 14.6 |
| 4 | Shaun Mohr | Xirkaali | 20 | 14.5 |
| 5 | Oswald Wendt | Ratkin | 20 | 14.3 |
| 6 | Adrian Hunter | Elves | 18 | 14.3 |
| 7 | Cameron Nicholls | Forces of the Abyss | 20 | 14.2 |
| 8 | Andrew Armstrong | Nightstalkers | 20 | 14.0 |
The field may lean Balanced and Grind, but several lists can still project meaningful damage from long range.
This is the check on the grind narrative.If you show up with a slow list and assume everyone is going to politely meet you in the middle, the Xirkaali and Elves may have a different plan. Forces of the Abyss also bring serious damage output, with two of the highest expected-damage lists in the field.
Items: Striding, Slashing, and Haste
The item table has a practical tournament story too.
| Magic Item | Count | % of Lists |
|---|---|---|
| Sir Jesse’s Boots of Striding | 11 | 33.3% |
| Blade of Slashing | 8 | 24.2% |
| Brew of Haste | 7 | 21.2% |
| Blessing of the Gods | 6 | 18.2% |
| Banner of Command | 4 | 12.1% |
| Healing Brew | 4 | 12.1% |
| Brew of Sharpness | 4 | 12.1% |
Sir Jesse’s Boots of Striding are the clear item leader. That fits the room. If the event is full of grindy and balanced lists, terrain navigation matters. Players are paying for reliable contact. They want their key hammers to work through the table, not around it. Brew of Haste also showing up seven times says the same thing from a different angle: players are buying threat extension where they can. ConVic may not be an alpha-strike event overall, but nobody wants to be the shorter threat in the critical exchange. To steal a Jeremy Duvall metaphor, yhat is good seasoning. Not too much spice. Just enough to make the list function.
What I’m Watching
A few questions stand out before dice hit the table.
1. Are Forces of Nature popular because they are best, or because they are comfortable?
There is a difference. A faction can lead the field because it is overtuned. It can also lead because it gives players a reliable toolkit: scoring, healing, defense, shambling pressure, and clear roles. Right now, I would be careful about jumping to the first conclusion. Curious first. Conclusive later (except for Ratkin. They need to be nerfed).
2. Can the long-threat lists crack the grind?
Xirkaali, Elves, Ratkin, Abyss, and Nightstalkers all have lists that can ask hard early questions. If they control the first meaningful charge, they can make the slower lists play from behind. That does not mean they are favored but does place a premium on smart deployment.
3. Do the high-Unit Strength armies actually convert scenario pressure?
Unit Strength only matters if it gets to the right places at the right time. Goblins, Abyssal Dwarfs, Ratkin, Elves, and Nature all have strong scoring profiles on paper. The table will decide whether that becomes control or just crowded deployment zones.
4. Are the Abyss lists quietly terrifying?
Forces of the Abyss have three lists, and their average expected damage is the highest faction mark in the field at 78.3. That is real output. The defensive profile is lighter than the high-nerve brick armies, but the pressure is obvious. If the Abyss players trade up early, they may not need to grind for six turns.
Final Thought
ConVic 2026 looks healthy: Forces of Nature are the headline, and they deserve it. Five lists in a 33-player field is not nothing. Fire Elementals and Earth Elementals leading the unit table is not nothing either. But the better story is the field behind them. Fifteen factions. A heavy Balanced and Grind core. Real long-threat pressure. Enough Unit Strength to make scenarios matter. Enough variety that nobody gets to prepare for just one thing.
Now we get the fun part: seeing which signals survive contact with the table.
