Spoiler: it’s not just that Basileans win a lot (they do) or that Orcs hit like a truck but never close (they don’t). The 2023‑25 tournament cycle has a few juicier plot‑twists than that.
Where This All Comes From
I scraped every event on Mantic’s Companion page that actually posted results–134 tournaments in total. Since rolling out in 2023, the Companion has quietly become a gold mine for meta-analysis. It’s allowed us to track not just what armies win, but how the tournament scene is evolving over time. Huge thanks to Ronnie and the Mantic team for making this data accessible–it’s been a dream playground for data nerds like me.
After cleaning out the usual “Spare” players, 0 % kill lines, and W‑D‑L = 0/0/0 curiosities, we’re left with a tidy set of just over 2,000 game-level rows to interrogate.
Data caveats: a handful of lists still show a blank faction and a couple of weird one‑off faction names linger (looking at you, Forces of the Abyss 2024). They don’t move the needles you care about, but I’ll flag them anyway.
Shifting Faction Popularity and Player Trends
| Faction | 2023% | 2024% | 2025% | Delta_2023_to_2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forces of the Abyss 2024 | 0 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Trident Realm of Neritica | 0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Northern Alliance | 2.9 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 2.6 |
| Varangur | 1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| – | 0.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| Twilight Kin | 1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Halflings | 5.3 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 1.3 |
| Empire of Dust | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 1 |
| The Order of the Green Lady | 1.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Ratkin | 1.4 | 3.6 | 2 | 0.6 |
| Ratkin Slaves | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| The Herd | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Abyssal Dwarfs | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | -0.1 |
| Goblins | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | -0.1 |
| Noble Undead | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Basileans | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | -0.3 |
| Orcs | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.6 | -0.3 |
| Nightstalkers | 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | -0.3 |
| Kingdoms of Men | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 | -0.4 |
| The Order of the Brothermark | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| Free Dwarfs | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.8 |
| League of Rhordia | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.9 |
| Dwarfs | 7.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | -1 |
| Sylvan Kin | 3.2 | 1 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Riftforged Orcs | 2.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | -1.8 |
| Salamanders | 6.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | -1.9 |
| Ogres | 9.5 | 5.7 | 7.6 | -2 |
| Forces of Nature | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Undead | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.6 | -2.6 |
| Elves | 6.9 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -2.9 |
| Forces of the Abyss | 4.2 | 4.8 | 0.2 | -4 |
Note: FoA and FoA24 are the pre- and post-update versions of the same faction. Trident Realm went through a similar change (TR/TR24), but the old entry was retired entirely after the update.
- Northern Alliance & Varangur are the new darlings. NA jumped from 2.9% in 2023 to 5.5% in 2025, while Varangur surged from just 1.0% to 3.5%. Other than the standout growth from Forces of the Abyss 2024 and Trident Realms, these were the two fastest-growing factions over the period. NA scored especially well at lower-table events, hinting at strong appeal for newer players or those revisiting the game with fresh eyes.
- Basileans keep showing up, but not exploding. Their raw list count is flat‑ish; what did change is how efficiently those lists convert to wins (foreshadowing…)
- Where did the Elves go? Elves dropped from 6.9% of lists in 2023 to just 4.1% in 2025, the largest decline of any non-replaced faction. Sylvan Kin also fell from 3.2% to 2.0%. While Twilight Kin picked up a bit of that slack–growing from 1.0% to 3.1%–the overall trend is clear: elf-variant armies are down across the board. The likely culprit? The 2024 rules tweak that trimmed elite shooting and disrupted the comfortable builds many relied on.
Damage ≠ Wins
Before we dive into the charts, it’s worth stating the obvious: just because a faction racks up kills doesn’t mean it’s winning games. Scenario play, survivability, and scoring units all matter–and the gaps between kill % and win % can be revealing.
| Faction | Avg Kill % | Win % | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Undead | 53.1 | 38.1 | +15.0 |
| Orcs | 55.1 | 41.4 | +13.7 |
| Forces of Nature | 58.1 | 45.1 | +13.0 |
| Forces of the Abyss 2024 | 57.6 | 45.6 | +12.0 |
| Forces of the Abyss | 60.9 | 49.1 | +11.8 |
| Salamanders | 56.2 | 47.3 | +8.9 |
| Twilight Kin | 56.0 | 47.2 | +8.8 |
| Nightstalkers | 56.7 | 48.0 | +8.7 |
| Dwarfs | 57.6 | 49.7 | +7.9 |
| Sylvan Kin | 56.2 | 48.6 | +7.6 |
| Trident Realm | 55.8 | 48.3 | +7.5 |
| Basileans | 63.0 | 59.5 | +3.5 |
| Varangur | 57.7 | 54.6 | +3.1 |
| Northern Alliance | 56.8 | 54.0 | +2.8 |
| Ogres | 61.4 | 58.9 | +2.5 |
| Empire of Dust | 56.4 | 54.2 | +2.2 |
| Riftforged Orcs | 54.3 | 53.5 | +0.8 |
| Kingdoms of Men | 53.0 | 52.6 | +0.4 |
| Halflings | 55.3 | 55.1 | +0.2 |
| Free Dwarfs | 57.2 | 58.1 | -0.9 |
| Herd | 56.5 | 58.0 | -1.5 |
| League of Rhordia | 56.0 | 58.2 | -2.2 |
| Elves | 58.7 | 59.2 | -0.5 |
- Noble Undead lead the “Punch Above Your Score” club. They table opponents for sport but still finish sub‑.400. Turns out mindless hordes don’t score scenario points when they’re, well, mindless. Noble Undead: This isn’t a separate faction in the rules, but is split out in the Companion for list-building purposes. The data here comes from roughly half a dozen recorded games–likely only one or two players–so these results are more anecdotal than representative.
- Basileans flip the script. They have the highest winning percentage of any faction over the last three years, clocking in at 59.5 % despite a good-but-not-outstanding 63 % kill rate. What’s driving those wins? Solid unit strength for scenario control, backed by multiple scoring flyers that can pivot late and close out games. Basileans aren’t just efficient—they’re surgical when it matters.
The Consistency Kings and Chaos Cannons
| Faction | Avg_Kill_Pct | Win_Pct | Kill%-Win% | Abs_Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Undead | 0.531 | 0.381 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Orcs | 0.551 | 0.414 | 0.137 | 0.137 |
| Forces of Nature | 0.581 | 0.451 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Forces of the Abyss 2024 | 0.576 | 0.456 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Forces of the Abyss | 0.609 | 0.491 | 0.118 | 0.118 |
| Abyssal Dwarfs | 0.6 | 0.498 | 0.102 | 0.102 |
| Free Dwarfs | 0.571 | 0.475 | 0.096 | 0.096 |
| Riftforged Orcs | 0.622 | 0.526 | 0.096 | 0.096 |
| Varangur | 0.592 | 0.497 | 0.094 | 0.094 |
| Elves | 0.587 | 0.492 | 0.094 | 0.094 |
| Sylvan Kin | 0.663 | 0.572 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Ratkin Slaves | 0.647 | 0.562 | 0.084 | 0.084 |
| Dwarfs | 0.576 | 0.497 | 0.079 | 0.079 |
| Halflings | 0.587 | 0.519 | 0.068 | 0.068 |
| The Order of the Green Lady | 0.556 | 0.489 | 0.067 | 0.067 |
| Ogres | 0.61 | 0.546 | 0.063 | 0.063 |
| Northern Alliance | 0.543 | 0.481 | 0.062 | 0.062 |
| Goblins | 0.577 | 0.515 | 0.062 | 0.062 |
| The Order of the Brothermark | 0.494 | 0.433 | 0.061 | 0.061 |
| Undead | 0.575 | 0.517 | 0.058 | 0.058 |
| The Herd | 0.56 | 0.504 | 0.057 | 0.057 |
| Nightstalkers | 0.524 | 0.47 | 0.055 | 0.055 |
| Empire of Dust | 0.551 | 0.499 | 0.052 | 0.052 |
| Salamanders | 0.569 | 0.53 | 0.038 | 0.038 |
| Kingdoms of Men | 0.535 | 0.497 | 0.038 | 0.038 |
| Basileans | 0.63 | 0.595 | 0.035 | 0.035 |
| League of Rhordia | 0.507 | 0.474 | 0.033 | 0.033 |
| Twilight Kin | 0.615 | 0.588 | 0.028 | 0.028 |
| Ratkin | 0.547 | 0.561 | -0.014 | 0.014 |
| Trident Realm of Neritica | 0.575 | 0.581 | -0.005 | 0.005 |
Not all factions are built equally when it comes to reliability. To take the same data and look at it slightly differently, I also looked at the absolute difference between kill pct and win pct. Some factions punch hard but don’t close. Others grind out wins with minimal flash. (here’s to you, Ratkin and Trident Realms). This chart shows the raw difference between how much a faction kills versus how often it actually wins–and the gaps tell us a lot.
Free Dwarfs, Herd, and League of Rhordia lead the consistency pack. These factions slightly underkill compared to their win rate, but consistently finish strong on scenarios. They don’t top charts for raw carnage, but they know how to play to the mission.
Noble Undead, Orcs, and Forces of Nature look great on paper–until the score sheet comes out. Each has a double-digit gap between kill % and win %, suggesting they dominate the combat phase but struggle with late-game positioning, objective scoring, or just bleeding too many points in return.
What this really tells us: If you want to reliably win games, it’s not just about how much you kill–it’s about what lives long enough to score. The best lists aren’t just blenders; they’re built to close.
So What?
- Basileans remain the gold‑standard for scenario play. Expect them at every top table until something drastic changes. Maybe Scott Holcomb–who piloted the lone Basilean list at the 2025 US Masters (full write-up here)–was onto something. He put together a deep run with a build that leaned into the same strengths we’re seeing in the broader data. You can watch him play on the CounterCharge live stream.
- High‑kill factions aren’t auto‑wins. If your list can’t pivot to objectives by Turn 5, you’re going to leak points.
- Keep an eye on the climbers. Northern Alliance and Trident Realm are getting table reps fast. They didn’t make much of a splash at the 2025 US Masters (full write-up here), but they’re quietly popping up at regional events all over the map. The reps are real, and the growth trend is one to watch. The meta might pivot to answer Frostfang Cav and Tidal Swarms sooner than you think.
